sábado, fevereiro 03, 2007

Eu e o Forum Português Pós-Quioto


Na passada quarta feira decorreu na Gulbenkian a conferência inaugural do Fórum Português Pós-Quioto. Apesar do atraso com que chega este post, o repórter estava lá e vai tentar agora sintetizar as suas impressões acerca palestras a que assistiu entre duas sempre divertidas consultas médicas.

Depois das apresentações e inevitáveis discursos dos representantes do governo (neste caso o Secretário de Estado do Ambiente Humberto Rosa, que saiu logo após da sua intervenção), Pedro Martins Barata, da Euronatura fez uma revisão da situação nacional em relação ao compromisso assumido por Portugal no âmbito do Protocolo de Quioto.

Portugal, ao contrário da maioria dos países da UE, podia aumentar as suas emissões de CO2 em 27% em relação aos níveis de 1990, mas essa cota já foi largamente ultrapassada e para cumprir o protocolo vamos ter de recorrer aos mecanismos de flexibilidade incluídos no mesmo (compra de créditos de carbono, etc). Esperemos que sejam tomadas (e não só anunciadas) medidas concretas e eficazes para a redução de emissões de Gases de Efeito de Estufa (GEE) para além de coisas pouco convincentes e com efeitos reduzidos no total de emissões geradas como a diminuição do limite máximo de velocidade para 118 km/h (como se alguém neste país fosse cumprir e/ou fiscalizar isso…), a diminuição dos dias de circulação dos táxis (que ainda assim são transportes públicos…) e a criação de uma taxa para lâmpadas pouco eficientes (a criação de benefícios fiscais para quem usasse energias renováveis e a diminuição dos impostos sobre tecnologias com maior eficiência energética seriam muito bem-vindos mas definitivamente menos lucrativos para o estado…).

Depois falou Wolfgang Cramer do Potsdam Institute on Climate Change sobre alterações climáticas perigosas e como evitá-las. Este tipo de alterações foram definidas pela sua equipa como correspondendo a uma subida da temperatura média superior a cerca de 2 a 2.5 ºC que seria acompanhada de verões extremos na Europa cuja temperatura média se poderia tornar a mesma vivida durante a canícula de 2003 já em 2020-2030, por alterações no padrão da Monção indiana de cujas chuvas depende aproximadamente ¼ da população mundial, seca generalizada na Amazónia que teria impactos ainda não totalmente conhecidos no clima local e global, aumento da intensidade das tempestades tropicais e sub-tropicais, o desaparecimento dos glaciares a latitudes mais baixas, entre uma série de outras coisas numa grande e desencorajadora lista de cenários num planeta mais quente.

Para evitar tudo isto é necessário estabilizar os níveis de CO2 na atmosfera entre os 450 e os 500 ppm o que envolve convencer os EUA (o maior emissor e de longe o maior emissor per capita) a China e a Índia (dentro de alguns anos os maiores emissores de CO2 mas com uma taxa per capita muito inferior aos EUA) a reduzir as suas emissões e, segundo este investigador, eliminar quase por completo a deflorestação descontrolada em todo o mundo visto que esta é responsável por aproximadamente 25% das emissões antropogénicas de CO2. Estas medidas de mitigação devem tomadas brevemente, como pico de emissões a situar-se algures entre 2015 e 2020 e ser acompanhadas por outras de adaptação ao aumento da temperatura resultante do aumento das concentrações de GEE até essa data.

As últimas duas intervenções a que assisti deram mais enfâse ao lado económico da coisa, com Jake Schmidt do Center for Clean Air Policy a salientar a importância do envolvimento da China, Índia, Brasil e outros países em rápido crescimento num acordo Pós-Quioto incentivando-os com projectos que permitam vantagens essencialmente domésticas (diminuição da dependência energética do estrangeiro, aumento da qualidade do ar, etc) e dando incentivos para a redução voluntária das emissões nos países em vias de desenvolvimento que seriam recompensados no caso de as conseguirem sem estarem sujeitos a sanções caso não conseguissem essa redução. O envolvimento dos EUA seria também essencial, e segundo Schmidt, se isso não acontecer este ano, só lá para 2009, com uma nova administração em funções, é que a conjuntura vai ser de novo favorável à adopção deste tipo de medidas por parte do governo americano.

Hubbert Kieken, do IDDRI, fez uma apresentação onde mostrou através de modelos macroeconómicos que a adopção de medidas mais rigorosas de redução de emissões de GEE não vão provocar uma hecatombe na economia mundial ao contrário do que algumas correntes político-económicas têm levado a crer apesar de nunca fundamentarem correctamente essa previsão.

Tudo isto se passou na semana em que foi divulgado o Summary for Policy Makers do IPCC e em que na Science saiu um artigo que confirma a concordância dos modelos usados por este painel nos seus relatórios e os dados observacionais, sendo que estes, no caso do aumento do nível médio das águas do mar, se situam no limite máximo das previsões de 2001, levando a que alguns investigadores critiquem este novo relatório por ser demasiado conservador.

Com as incertezas a desaparecer as medidas para diminuir as emissões de GEE tornam-se cada vez mais urgentes mas isso não impede que tanto governos como empresas tentem desesperadamente encobrir ou lançar a dúvida sobre as alterações climáticas para assim não comprometerem os seus interesses.

Cada dia que passa a ameaça cresce lentamente e é precisamente essa lentidão que torna a urgência da aplicação das medidas de mitigação tão difícil de popularizar e o hipotético impacto económico negativo das mesmas tão fácil de difundir. É urgente passar à acção concertada a nível global com medidas concretas e o apoio da sociedade civil que parece cada vez mais predisposta a aceitar estas medidas, pelo menos nos países ocidentais. O maior problema pode vir da China, onde procura energética cresce a um nível impressionante aliada às enormes reservas internas de carvão e não existe uma opinião publica suficientemente forte para pressionar o seu estado não democrático que só vai aceitar diminuir as suas emissões se isso lhe for de alguma maneira vantajoso.

2007 pode ser um ano de viragem e marcar um verdadeiro princípio de uma politica mundial de combate ás alterações climáticas, se a deixar-mos passar corremos o risco de só nos apercebermos dos nossos erros quando for tarde demais.

PS: Posto isto, alguém que ganhar milhões a inventar maneiras eficazes de sequestrar CO2 ?

19 comentários:

João Guerreiro disse...

Essa de reduzir o limite maximo de velocidade para 118Km/h é de gritos!
É mesmo tanga de ambientalista...
Gostava de fazer uma viagem de carro até ao algarve na autoestrada, com essa pessoa a conduzir, e ver a que velocidade ia...
Eu considero-me uma pessoa consciente dos problemas ambientais mas essas politicas põem-me parvo!
Mas isso sou eu....

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